Rising rates led to a difficult first quarter for fixed income, but the silver lining is that income opportunities may have improved. Another dynamic that is affecting the income landscape is the flattening of the yield curve. The yield curve is a line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates. A flatter yield curve resulting from short-term rates rising faster than long-term rates indicates that investors aren’t demanding much additional compensation to loan their money for longer periods. This can be a benefit to investors searching for yield, but who are concerned about the impact of rising interest rates, because, as LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch explained, “At this time, a flattening yield curve is giving investors more yield with less interest rate risk at shorter maturities.” Please see our LPL Chart of the Day below:
As of April 27, 2018, a 5-year Treasury note yielded 2.80%, while a 10-year note yielded 2.96%. Investors can essentially cut their interest rate sensitivity in half, while only sacrificing 0.16% in yield. Similar opportunities exist in other sectors, like investment-grade corporate bonds. For instance, the Bloomberg Barclays Corporate 1–3 Year Index yielded 3.08% as of April 27, 2018, its highest yield since October 2009 and a meaningful yield with limited rate sensitivity. The yield curve is giving investors opportunities for income, while defensively positioning their portfolios against the possibility of rising interest rates.
For LPL Research’s top ideas for income-generating strategies, please see our Bond MarketPerspectives, “Search for Income: Yield Opportunities Improve.”
Treasuries are a marketable, fixed-interest U.S. government debt security. Treasury bonds make interest payments semi-annually and the income that holders receive is only taxed at the federal level. Treasuries are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.
Yield curve is a line that plots the interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality, but differing maturity dates. The most frequently reported yield curve compares the 3-month, 2-year, 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury debt. This yield curve is used as a benchmark for other debt in the market, such as mortgage rates or bank lending rates. The curve is also used to predict changes in economic output and growth.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.
All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL Financial LLC is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.
The investment products sold through LPL Financial are not insured deposits and are not FDIC/NCUA insured. These products are not Bank/Credit Union obligations and are not endorsed, recommended or guaranteed by any Bank/Credit Union or any government agency. The value of the investment may fluctuate, the return on the investment is not guaranteed, and loss of principal is possible.
For Public Use— Tracking # 1-726360 (Exp. 05/19)